Forecasting product demand with neural nets

1 vue (au cours des 30 derniers jours)
Bine
Bine le 14 Mar 2012
Dear MATLAB experts, I need your hlep
I'm new in MATLAB world :-) and as a beginner I have problem with my task.
I have to forecast demand for one product. I have history data for 5 years (2007 - 2011) and I have to predict demand for that product for 2012. I read the documentation and start with designing neural net. I create 2 types of neural net -- Focused Time-Delay NN and NARX. (I have data for additional factors for demand - eg. price ... and that's why I choose NARX).
My problem is>
1. Focused Time-Delay NN and NARX NN not predict. The result is simulated data for known demand. (eg. demand for 2011). If the last data for December 2011 is NaN then I get value for that. I am confused --- Is that prediction for December 2011 valid?
2. The result from Focused Time-Delay NN and NARX NN (forecast value for December 2011) is different. ( with FTDNN I get 600.000 but with NARX 460.000)
Q1: How to use time series to predict? Q2: What about different delays? Q3: Is data set enough for training and testing?
Please help me to write code for predicting
Thank you very much, I really appreciate all your effort to solve my problem
BB

Réponse acceptée

Greg Heath
Greg Heath le 14 Mar 2012
Search
heath NEWFFTD
for sample prediction code.
I have not used NARX yet.
Hope this helps.
Greg

Plus de réponses (0)

Catégories

En savoir plus sur Sequence and Numeric Feature Data Workflows dans Help Center et File Exchange

Community Treasure Hunt

Find the treasures in MATLAB Central and discover how the community can help you!

Start Hunting!

Translated by