In your example simulating geometric random walk like process with fat tailed innovations, how do you know the mean exists?

2 vues (au cours des 30 derniers jours)
In the following example in the MATLAB document: https://www.mathworks.com/help/econ/examples/using-extreme-value-theory-and-copulas-to-evaluate-market-risk.html
You model the asset returns as a process with heavy tailes. Particularly, the log differences are modeled by AR(1) process with Student t distributed innovations. Subsequently, the residuals are also modeled with GPD tails. You then obtain the exponent of the differences to get the forecast of asset prices.
How do you know that the forecast exists? For instance, there is no mean of exp(x) where x is from Student t. The tails are too heavy and so the integral doesn't converge, and the mean is undefined.

Réponses (0)

Catégories

En savoir plus sur Conditional Mean Models dans Help Center et File Exchange

Produits


Version

R2017a

Community Treasure Hunt

Find the treasures in MATLAB Central and discover how the community can help you!

Start Hunting!

Translated by