regression serial correlation and ARMA

Hello,
Let's say that I have a daily return series of a stock of a company.
I would like to build a regression model. However instead of forecasting next day return I would like to forecast monthly return. This means dependent variable represents price(t+22)-price(t) (22 trading days) whereas independent variable is price(t)-price(t-1). Since there is such a lag, error terms become extremely correlated. I wanted to use an ARMA model, but I don't know how to ignore first 22 lags, as those inputs will be unknown when running the model out of sample. Basically I would like to use daily samples but monthly returns as output.
How do I go by doing this?
Thank you.

Réponses (0)

Catégories

En savoir plus sur Linear and Nonlinear Regression dans Centre d'aide et File Exchange

Community Treasure Hunt

Find the treasures in MATLAB Central and discover how the community can help you!

Start Hunting!

Translated by